Time For Award Predictions at the Edinburgh Film Festival?

Considering the few films I've managed to see between writing reviews and being tractor beamed unwillingly into various parties (such a chore), trying to predict festival winners at this stage would not only be foolish, but mathematically about the same as correctly predicting lottery winners.

I did think of putting the names up on a wall and throwing a dart at them, but that's a little unfair, I could of course simply make the effort to see them and use some judgement.

However, the odds of predicting the now coveted Michael Powell award, which this year has a much bigger cash prize, isn't quite as random as there are only eleven to choose from. By this afternoon I will have seen four and a half of them and by the end of the week hopefully the lot.

Last year, I correctly predicted that last year's Michael Powell Award jury Anton Corbin's exquisitely beautiful Control would win despite being the only contender that I'd seen at that time. I've not quite been blown away yet by the three and half that I have seen so I will make a stab at a guess right now going on the brief crits written in the programme and gut feeling. I do however reserve the right to change my opinion based on actual proper forensic evidence once I have it.

I may be very wrong about this but I believe in the old days the Michael Powell award was originally intended to promote best debut British feature. But it isn't strictly that now as its remit is to reward 'imagination and creativity in British film making' and I believe first and second time features are eligible to be entered.

However, even that is in doubt for me now as The Edge of Love is a contender and it's at least John Maybury's third feature after Love is the Devil and The Jacket, so perhaps the Michael Powell award should really be regarded as 'Best British film' of the festival and one that is stamped with an innovative and original voice in honour of Michael Powell's creative and pioneering genius.

Add onto that the suspicion that the 2008 Jury (pictured) will look for a film that needs a push, that needs a bit of spotlight, that may not have a distribution deal or guaranteed recognition and I think that could swing the votes in a particular direction. For me this rules out The Edge of Love immediately - it's not a film that needs to be recognised in this way - it's star studded and has a major release this week and John Maybury's voice and career are no longer in doubt.

The list of eligible contenders, as far as I can tell:

• The Edge of Love
• Faintheart
• Better Things
• A Complete History of My Sexual Failures
• Donkey Punch
• Dummy
• Helen
• Man on Wire
• Somers Town
• Stone of Destiny
• Summer

So I've ruled The Edge of Love out. Now at the risk of offending many filmmakers with throwaway comments I predict that Faintheart looks like immense, but daft fun so I'll strike that one off too, Chris Waitt's entertaining docu-mental opus strikes me as a possibility, but it does have a release coming up with already growing publicity and although it's bold and brave and immensely entertaining, it doesn't strike me as highly original in technique and Waitt clearly has a bright future ahead of him anyway. I could be wrong. This might be the surprise winner, it is one the festival's most popular films so far.

Going on a gut feeling I would throw my dart towards Duane Hopkins Better Things which in Hannah McGill's words, (the EIFF director) is "Heartfelt, hard-hitting and richly textured....an unforgettable cinematic experience". This is coming from a filmmaker who's already won Best Short Film at this festival for Love Me or Leave Me a few years back. That's all I can say about it just now and it may be terribly unfair to make this guess, but for me it ticks the right buttons.

I'm going to have to end it there as I have to dash away and see Man on Wire, another Michael Powell contender so I will report back later.